2021 Gubernatorial Election: A Razor-Thin Result

The 2021 New Jersey governor’s race was far more competitive than expected. Incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy ultimately barely secured re-election with 51.2% of the vote to Republican Jack Ciattarelli’s 48.0%, a margin of roughly 3.2 percentage points (about 84,000 votes out of 2.6 million cast)​en.wikipedia.org. This narrow win made Murphy the first Democrat to win a second gubernatorial term in NJ since 1977​en.wikipedia.org, underscoring how unusually close the contest was. Ciattarelli’s surprisingly strong performance defied pre-election polls (which had predicted a comfortable Murphy lead) and nearly broke New Jersey’s trend of flipping party control after two gubernatorial terms​en.wikipedia.org​en.wikipedia.org. In short, Murphy’s 2021 victory was by the slimmest margin for a NJ governor in decades, highlighting that Ciattarelli “came close to winning”​newjerseymonitor.com.

One way to appreciate how tight the 2021 race was is to examine the results county by county. Ciattarelli carried 11 of New Jersey’s 21 counties, including some historically Democratic areas, while Murphy won the other 10 (mostly the urban and densely populated counties). The table below shows the official 2021 results by county, with each candidate’s vote share and the percentage-point margin:

Table: 2021 NJ Governor Election Results by County. Murphy’s percentage and Ciattarelli’s percentage are shown, along with the margin of victory (D = Murphy, R = Ciattarelli). Data source: NJ Division of Elections​nj.gov​nj.gov.

As the table shows, many counties were closely divided. Murphy’s winning margin came largely from a few Democratic strongholds (e.g. Essex County’s nearly 49-point Democratic landslide), but Ciattarelli racked up pluralities in a majority of counties – including modest wins in suburban counties like Gloucester (R+10) and Morris (R+11) that had favored Democrats in the past. Notably, Passaic and Somerset were nearly dead heats, with Murphy prevailing by under 4 points in each. The fact that a Republican could come so close in blue-leaning North Jersey counties (like Bergen, Passaic, Somerset) and actually win diverse swing counties (like Atlantic and Cumberland) in 2021 signaled a shifting political undercurrent. In sum, the 2021 results confirmed New Jersey is not a solid “blue lock” – a competitive Republican like Ciattarelli can contend even in traditionally Democratic turf when conditions are right.

Voter Registration Trends (2017–2024): Republicans Closing the Gap

Evidence of a Republican resurgence in New Jersey can be seen in the state’s voter registration trends. Over the past few years, the GOP has steadily chipped away at the Democrats’ long-held registration advantage. New Jersey has long had more registered Democrats than Republicans, but that gap has markedly narrowed heading into 2025.

According to official state data, New Jersey’s total registered voters hit about 6.73 million by November 2024​patch.com​patch.com. Of these, roughly 2.54 million were Democrats (37.7%) and 1.63 million were Republicans (24.2%), with the rest (about 2.49 million, 37.0%) unaffiliated independents​patch.com. While Democrats still outnumber Republicans, the margin between them has shrunk to under 900,000 voters​newjerseyglobe.com. In fact, at the start of 2025 Democrats led Republicans by 896,350 registered voters – down from a gap of well over 1 million just four years prior​newjerseyglobe.com. This is a significant tightening in party enrollment.

Importantly, the shrinking gap is not because Democrats are gaining – it’s because Republicans are catching up at a faster rate. Since January 2021, New Jersey’s voter rolls grew only marginally for Democrats (a net increase of essentially zero – “9 more Democrats” over that period) while Republicans added 184,000+ new voters​newjerseyglobe.com. In other words, the GOP expanded its base by ~13% in four years, whereas Democrats stayed flat. Unaffiliated voters have also increased slightly in number (now essentially tied with Democrats as the largest bloc)​newjerseyglobe.com​northjersey.com, but the standout trend is the accelerated growth of Republican registration. Month after month since the start of the Biden presidency, Republicans have out-registered Democrats in New Jersey​newjerseyglobe.com.

This trend peaked in 2024, a year which saw a surge of new voter registrations statewide – and Republicans benefitted disproportionately. In 2024 alone, New Jersey added a net 95,784 Republican registrants, compared to just 37,519 net new Democrats​newjerseyglobe.com​newjerseyglobe.com. (Unaffiliated registrations grew by an even larger number, +112,115, reflecting many new voters defaulting to independent status​newjerseyglobe.com.) The chart below illustrates the net new registered voters by party in 2024:

Net new registered voters in New Jersey in 2024, by party affiliation. Republicans saw over 95k additions, far outpacing the ~37.5k net gain for Democrats (unaffiliated voters grew by 112k). Data source: NJ Division of Elections/New Jersey Globe​newjerseyglobe.com.

This registration boom in 2024 reduced the Democratic edge further. By Election Day 2024, Democrats made up 37.7% of NJ voters vs. 37.0% unaffiliated vs. 24.2% Republicans​patch.com. Compare this to a few years earlier – Democrats held a double-digit percentage lead in registration. The latest figures indicate a clear tightening of the electorate, with Republicans now comprising nearly a quarter of voters (and climbing). The bottom line: New Jersey’s voter rolls are no longer experiencing Democratic growth, but Republicans are steadily gaining ground​newjerseyglobe.com. The Democratic registration advantage – once over 1 million – is on track to potentially drop below 800k if these trends continue into 2025​northjersey.com. This trajectory bodes well for GOP candidates like Ciattarelli, as it expands the pool of likely Republican voters and suggests rising grassroots enthusiasm on the right.

GOP Gains in Counties Since Trump’s Campaigns

New Jersey’s voting patterns at the county level have realigned significantly since Donald Trump’s presidential campaigns, with many counties shifting toward Republicans in recent elections. Trump’s influence on the NJ electorate – particularly in working-class and suburban areas – can be seen by comparing recent election outcomes:

• 2016 vs 2020 (Trump’s first term): Trump lost New Jersey by about 14 points in 2016 and by 16 points in 2020​newjerseyglobe.com. However, there were noteworthy flips in individual counties. For example, Gloucester County (a historically Democratic county in South Jersey) flipped Republican for Trump in 2016, then flipped back Democratic for Biden in 2020​en.wikipedia.org​patch.com. Conversely, Morris County (a GOP-leaning North Jersey suburb) flipped to Biden in 2020 – the first time Morris voted Democratic for President since 1964​en.wikipedia.org​patch.com. These cross-currents showed Trump’s polarizing effect: some suburban areas trended blue in backlash, while some traditionally Dem blue-collar areas trended red.

• 2020 vs 2024 (Trump’s recent campaign): The most dramatic shifts have come in the latest election. In 2024, with Donald Trump actively campaigning for a comeback against Democrat Kamala Harris, New Jersey’s counties swung sharply rightward. Harris carried NJ by only about 6 points (a 252,498 vote margin)​newjerseyglobe.com – an extremely narrow margin for a Democrat in New Jersey. This was far closer than Biden’s 16-point win in 2020​newjerseyglobe.com. In fact, 2024 was the closest a Republican came to winning NJ’s presidential vote in three decades. County-by-county results confirm broad GOP gains:

  • Bergen County (NYC suburb, NJ’s most populous county): Biden won Bergen by ~16.5 points in 2020​politico.com. But in 2024, Harris squeaked out only a ~3.5 point win in Bergen (approximately 51.7%–48.3%)​nj.gov. The Democratic margin in Bergen plummeted from ~81,000 votes in 2020 to just ~15,500 votes in 2024​politico.com​nj.gov. This indicates many swing voters in Bergen shifted Republican, a huge warning sign for Democrats.

  • Passaic County (diverse, urban/suburban county): Biden carried Passaic by a comfortable 16.5-point margin in 2020​en.wikipedia.org. In 2024, Trump flipped Passaic red – he narrowly won the county by ~3 points (49.7% to 46.9%, with minor candidates taking the rest)​nj.gov. This nearly 20-point swing to the GOP in Passaic likely reflects Trump’s improved appeal to Hispanic voters in cities like Paterson, combined with higher GOP turnout. A county that hadn’t voted Republican for President since the 1980s is now back in the GOP column.

  • South Jersey counties: Atlantic County (home to Atlantic City) went from Democratic (Biden +6.7) in 2020​politico.com to Republican (Trump +3.9) in 2024​nj.gov​nj.gov. Gloucester County swung from Biden +1.9 in 2020​politico.com to Trump +~4.6 in 2024​nj.gov​nj.gov. Cumberland County similarly moved from a narrow Dem win in 2020 to a GOP win in 2024. These blue-collar counties, which Murphy also lost in 2021, appear to be trending reliably Republican – a shift that began with Trump’s populist appeal.

  • Morris County (wealthy NYC exurb): After voting for Biden in 2020 by ~4 points​en.wikipedia.org, Morris swung back to the GOP in 2024 (Trump +~2.6 points)​en.wikipedia.org​nj.gov. Morris’s reversion suggests that whatever Democratic inroads occurred during the Trump presidency have since faded, and traditional moderate Republicans are returning to the fold.

  • Others: Even Democratic strongholds saw Republican improvements. For example, Middlesex County (a large suburban county that Murphy won easily in 2021) saw the Democratic presidential margin shrink from ~12 points in 2020 to single digits in 2024. Hudson and Essex Counties (urban Democratic bastions) remained blue, but Trump modestly increased his raw vote totals there in 2024. In reliably red counties like Ocean, Sussex, and Warren, Trump achieved even larger margins than in 2020, juicing Republican turnout to new highs.

Overall, the 2024 presidential results confirmed a Republican shift across nearly all NJ counties. Harris won only ~5 counties (down from 13 counties won by Biden) – and even those she won (Bergen, Middlesex, etc.) were much closer than before​nj.gov​nj.gov. This broad realignment toward the GOP at the county level corresponds with the voter registration gains noted earlier and with the strong GOP performance in 2021’s state elections. It appears that Donald Trump’s recent campaigning managed to energize Republican turnout and convert swing voters in New Jersey, dramatically eroding Democratic margins. These county-level trends suggest an electorate far more receptive to GOP candidates now than it was prior to 2016.

For Jack Ciattarelli, this is extremely promising. If New Jersey was only D+6 in the 2024 presidential race​newjerseyglobe.com, a capable Republican candidate stands a real chance in a state-level race. It’s worth noting that New Jersey has a history of electing GOP governors when national Democrats hold the White House (e.g. Christie won in 2009 under Obama). With a Democrat (Harris) now in the White House and many NJ counties trending right, the 2025 environment could similarly favor a Republican gubernatorial candidate.

2025 Outlook: Polls and Political Climate Favor Ciattarelli

All the indicators above – the close 2021 result, surging Republican registration, and recent GOP-friendly voting shifts – feed into a clear narrative: Jack Ciattarelli enters the 2025 governor’s race with momentum on his side. Recent polling and the evolving political landscape reinforce the view that Ciattarelli is well-positioned to win.

First, within his own party, Ciattarelli is the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination. A Rutgers-Eagleton poll conducted in early April 2025 shows Ciattarelli with 42% support among GOP voters, towering over his nearest rival (conservative radio host Bill Spadea at 12%)​newjerseyglobe.com​newjerseyglobe.com. Multiple surveys have confirmed Ciattarelli’s dominant lead in the Republican primary field​newjerseyglobe.com, a testament to his name recognition and strong base after the 2021 run. He has effectively consolidated Republican voters – nearly three-quarters of GOP respondents recognize him statewide, with about half holding a favorable view​fdu.edu. This united GOP base will be an asset in the general election, especially if Republican enthusiasm remains high post-Trump.

On the Democratic side, by contrast, the field is divided and unsettled. The same Rutgers poll found no consensus Democratic choice – Rep. Mikie Sherrill led with just 17%, and five other Democrats polled in the 7–12% range (Fulop, Spiller, Gottheimer, Baraka, Sweeney all clustered)​newjerseyglobe.com. With about one-third of Democratic voters still undecided​newjerseyglobe.com, the party may go through a bruising primary or at least lacks a galvanizing figure at this stage. This contrasts sharply with 2021, when Murphy was an incumbent with unified support. In 2025, Democrats will emerge from a competitive primary, potentially somewhat fractured or with a nominee who lacks statewide name ID. Ciattarelli, meanwhile, can focus on the general election early, presenting himself as a moderate, experienced alternative.

The general political climate in New Jersey also leans in Ciattarelli’s favor. After eight years of Democratic governance under Murphy, there is often an appetite for change – historically, New Jersey has flipped party control of the governorship after two terms of one party. Voters may seek balance against the national backdrop of Democratic control in Washington. Ciattarelli’s platform (fiscally moderate, pro-business, property tax relief) could attract the very suburban voters who shifted right in 2024. And critically, Ciattarelli has already proven he can nearly win in this blue state. As one analysis noted, he “outperformed expectations in the last governor’s race”​fdu.edu. Coming so close in 2021 with relatively low turnout, Ciattarelli likely needs only a small boost – which the new voter registrations and Trump-driven enthusiasm may supply – to flip those few percentage points his way.

Early hypothetical general-election polling in New Jersey is sparse, but all signs point to a competitive contest. Analysts universally rate the 2025 NJ governor race as highly competitive, not safe for Democrats. The New Jersey Monitor flatly described the Democratic primary as a “toss-up” and noted Ciattarelli “came close to winning” last time​newjerseymonitor.com, implying that he could very well win in 2025. National forecasters are likely to move this race into toss-up territory given New Jersey’s trend of surprising gubernatorial upsets (recall Christie’s victory in 2009 and the close call in 2021). Moreover, Ciattarelli’s moderate image could attract unaffiliated voters, who now rival Democrats in numbers. If even a fraction of the nearly 2.5 million unaffiliateds lean Republican (as they seemed to in 2021 and 2024), Democrats will be hard-pressed to overcome the GOP’s energized base.

In summary, Jack Ciattarelli is more likely than not to win New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial election. He has momentum on all fronts: a proven record of competitiveness, a growing voter base, favorable shifts in formerly Democratic regions, and a divided opposition. The fundamentals – from county voting patterns to registration stats – all indicate a New Jersey electorate trending right-of-center, ready to elect a Republican governor. Barring unforeseen shifts, Ciattarelli’s strong positioning and New Jersey’s current political trajectory give him the edge to capture the Governor’s seat in 2025.

Sources: Official NJ Division of Elections results; NJ Division of Elections voter registration reports; New Jersey Globe analysis of voter registration and polling​newjerseyglobe.com​newjerseyglobe.com​newjerseyglobe.com; NorthJersey.com voter registration reporting​northjersey.com; Patch NJ election statistics​patch.com; Rutgers-Eagleton/FDU Polls​newjerseyglobe.com​fdu.edu; 2020–2024 election results (Politico/NewYorkTimes)​politico.com​nj.gov.