By Julio Rosa — April 17, 2025

Democrats have long held a strong grip on New Jersey politics, controlling the governorship and both legislative chambers. But according to new ratings from Ballotpedia, that dominance may be slipping. Their latest assessment lists the Garden State’s Democratic trifecta as “somewhat vulnerable” heading into the 2025 election cycle.

While on paper Democrats appear to have a safe advantage, beneath the surface there’s growing turbulence — from voter fatigue and internal party rifts to mounting criticism over tax policies and law enforcement failures.

Taxpayer Fatigue Is Real

Governor Phil Murphy’s “Stay NJ” senior tax relief plan was intended to keep aging residents from fleeing to Florida. But critics, including gubernatorial candidate Bill Spadea, have called it “a gimmick” that does little for working-class families still crushed by property taxes.

Meanwhile, younger voters feel left out of the conversation entirely — squeezed by rent hikes, toll increases, and stagnant wages. That discontent could cost Democrats support in the suburbs and among younger, traditionally blue voters.

Rising Stars with Rising Luggage

Several of the state’s top Democratic contenders for governor have faced recent controversies. Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop is dogged by questions surrounding tax abatements and developer relationships. Newark’s Ras Baraka, though polling strongly, faces concerns about crime and a lack of statewide name recognition.

These intra-party tensions — and the possibility of a bruising primary — may fracture Democratic turnout or push independents toward a polished GOP challenger.

Republicans Smell Opportunity

While no GOP candidate has yet solidified clear statewide support, former radio host Bill Spadea has capitalized on cultural issues like immigration enforcement, crime, and parental rights in education. His aggressive populist tone, though controversial, is energizing parts of the Republican base that stayed home in previous cycles.

And let’s not forget: voter turnout in off-year elections is often low, unpredictable, and potentially devastating for complacent parties.

Scott Presler’s Ground Game: A GOP Wild Card

Enter Scott Presler, the conservative activist credited with helping flip Pennsylvania red in 2024. Now, he’s bringing his “Pennsylvania model” to New Jersey, aiming to replicate his voter registration success ahead of the state’s November 2025 gubernatorial election. Presler’s grassroots efforts have already mobilized thousands of new Republican voters in Pennsylvania, and he’s now deploying similar tactics in the Garden State. His strategy includes targeting Second Amendment enthusiasts at gun shows and ranges, courting veterans at American Legion halls, and engaging younger voters at fraternity and sorority houses. His team has trained hundreds of volunteers across nearly half of New Jersey’s 21 counties, registering new Republican voters at a breakneck pace. 

Presler’s presence is energizing the GOP base, with events drawing unprecedented crowds and enthusiasm. His involvement signals a serious national investment in flipping New Jersey, a state that has shown signs of vulnerability in recent elections.

A Cracked Coalition

The national Democratic Party faces waning support from key voter blocs, and New Jersey may be feeling the aftershocks. With high-profile tech lawsuits, public-sector labor unrest (NJ Transit engineers just voted down a new deal), and mounting economic anxiety, the Murphy era is ending on shaky ground.

If the Democratic machine fails to energize its base — or continues pushing divisive fiscal policies — 2025 may mark the first serious red wave New Jersey has seen in decades.